Ahhh. Here we are again.
My personal bets, by the way, are mostly safe: Christian Bale (although John Hawkes did just win at the Independent Spirit Awards yesterday, and Bale may have worn out his welcome with the drunken acceptance speeches?), Hailee Steinfeld (or, failing that, Helena Bonham Carter) in an upset over Melissa Leo after her strange ad campaign,* Colin Firth, Natalie Portman, David Fincher, and The King's Speech. Up until the Producers' Guild Awards, right before the Globes, The Social Network seemed to be the leader, but suddenly everything started going in the other direction; however, I have not seen any indication that a third movie has enough support to jump in, but who knows. I'm guessing The Social Network and Inception for screenplay, based on previous awards, although if The King's Speech gets a good juggernaut going, they could take Original Screenplay as well. Even so, Colleen Atwood will probably win
* You know what the strange part was? Not that she campaigned for herself, but that all the fur coats and Glamour Shots photography seemed to say, Consider... that I should be a MOVIE STAR. It's just... weird. I would have gone with shots of myself from the movie, or at least styled with a similar look, the way all other For Your Consideration ads do. The implication, intended or not, is that she deserves the Oscar because she is or should be a glamour queen, and it seems that voters have found that off-putting. And the really stupid part is that she was already the front-runner and had won both the SAG and the Globe; there was no need to splash out for a campaign at all.
@JohnFugelsang: At least 25 people in the background on the Red Carpet are Renfields begging Master for a Drop of The Blood. Watch.
Speaking of which,
@hollywoodcrush: 'Twilight' musical moment happening about half-way through the Oscar ceremony http://ow.ly/44pAO
@cleolinda: This statement fills me with terror. And chagrin. Definitely chagrin.
So far my favorites on the carpet are Mila Kunis, Helena Bonham Carter and her fan purse, and Hailee Steinfeld WHO IS A PRECIOUS PRECIOUS PRINCESS and now I really hope she and her headband win. I can't decide if I like Cate Blanchett's dress or not, but it kind of doesn't matter because it's just... so her.
@coheny: @fuggirls Helena Bonham Carter has a garter with the UK flag on it!!!!
@sydk: @cleolinda If I ever went to the Oscars, I'd just show up in jeans, a t-shirt and Chucks. People'd NOTICE, man.
@cleolinda: @sydk I believe that is what Bryan Adams wore when he performed in '92.
@sydk: @cleolinda AND YOU STILL REMEMBER. See?!
Okay. I am running behind schedule here, so I'm going to go grab drinks and Tagalongs and such and meet you back when the show starts.